Your forecast specialists
hpo forecasting contributes to a
thriving workplace
by providing the best possible order intake forecasts for
the industry.
The specialists at hpo forecasting create company-specific forecasts for incoming orders.
hpo forecasting maintains more than 100 industry forecast models for incoming orders worldwide.
The main focus is on capital goods (e.g. mechanical engineering) and durable consumer goods (e.g. automotive).
The forecasting period is 18 months. Rough long-term forecasts up to 5 years are possible as well.
hpo forecasting uses a mathematical model.
Key finding: The economy as a oscillating system.
Early forecasting of the last three major crises (dot-com bubble 2001, financial crisis 2008 and the current crisis 2019/2020).
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Industries
hpo forecasting maintains more than 100 industry forecast models for incoming orders in different markets like Europe, North America and Asia. The main focus is on capital goods (e.g. mechanical engineering) and manufacturers / dealers of durable consumer goods (e.g. automotive)
The starting point is always the industry forecast model in order to be able to do the company-specific forecasts. In case companies operating in different industries, we often work with mixed industry indicators to take account of the diversity of the customer industries or - if the data situation permits - we create separate forecast models for the individual sectors.
Examples of some industries for which hpo forecasting maintains order entry forecasts:
- Agricultural and forestry machinery
- Automotive
- Building construction (and its suppliers)
- Construction machinery
- Conveyor and storage technology
- Electronic components and printed circuit boards
- Fluid power
- Food and packaging machines
- General mechanical engineering
- Logistics
- Machine Tools
- Motor homes
- Printing machinery
- Semiconductors
- Semitrailers
- Steel and iron
- Textile machinery
- Tooling
- Trucks
And many more. New forecasting models are being added on an
ongoing basis.
Contact us to find out whether a qualitatively good forecast model is possible for your company. We are happy to offer you a free preliminary analysis of your incoming orders to clarify this on a fact-based foundation.
Forecasting Model
The hpo forecasts are based on the Peter Meier Forecasting Model, a scientifically founded and empirically proven model for predicting the order intake of industrial companies (capital goods and consumer durables).
The Peter Meier Forecasting Model was developed by Peter Meier, ETH plant engineer and former Managing Director of Starrag ag. He has been working intensively in economic research for twenty years and, among other things, correctly predicted the last three major crises (dot-com bubble in 2001, financial crisis in 2008 and the latest crisis 2019/2020) at an early stage. He continues to act as an advisor for hpo forecasting.
The basics of the mathematical forecasting approach are transparently described in Peter Meier's book "The Economy as an Oscillating System" (Hanser Verlag, 2019).
The book explains how economic forecasts are possible for individual industries and companies. In addition to many examples and graphics, the book also offers concrete practical tips as well as an insight into typical business cycle patterns of individual industries.
Why hpo forecasting
hpo forecasting predicts the order intake of industrial companies. The forecast model is based on the key insight that business activity behaves like an oscillating system as seen, for example, in mechanical engineering. This makes it possible to predict the general economic situation and the development of incoming orders in individual sectors and even of individual companies with astonishing precision.
